نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه مهندسی کامپیوتر و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشگاه صنعتی همدان، همدان، ایران
2 استادیار گروه مطالعات آینده‌نگری موسسه مطالعات فرهنگی و اجتماعی، تهران، ایران
3 مدیر بخش میراث فرهنگی ناملموس، مرکز میراث ناملموس تهران، ایران
4 دانش‌آموخته دکترای ارتباطات دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to answer “Which scenarios and alternative futures can be assumed when new technologies would be employed in the book publication cycle in Iran?” This investigation focuses on the stakeholders’ readiness to face changes emerging from new technologies.
Method: The paper benefits from a mix of methods such as reviewing and analysing global trends of new technologies through documentary research, environmental scanning, organising expert panels and brainstorming to determine uncertainty through participatory action learing. Also, it exmines the extent of impressiveness and susceptibility of the parameters involving in book publication cycle in Iran through cross impact analysis and producing alternative futures through scenario planning.
Findings: Five scenarios were genrated. The scenarios were created based on the two major concurrent parameters which the experts mentioned as the most effective and susceptible ones. The first parameter “concept of technology” is a binary thought of technophobia and technophilia in which a group finds technology an instrument for development and a better situation, while the other sees it as a hindering obstacle., The second parameter “government’s intervention” also another binary situation. in which the government can play a minimal and maximal intervention in the cycle. Based on these binaries, the scenarios were panned.
Conclusion: Based on an analysis of the scenarios and the role of key parameters using foresight logica number of recommendations are made aiming to achieve a preferable situation for the book publication cycle. In addition, ithe paper tried to determine the role of major stakeholders in each of the book publication cycles and their cross impacts to create a preferable future.The experts emphasized that, historically and sociologically speaking, no one can put an end to the role of the state in formation of nation,but its role as governance and administration can be leadership and facilitation.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
] کلی، کوین، (۱۳۹۹)، آینده نزدیک، دوازده فناوری که به آینده ما شکل خواهند داد، مترجم: شایان تقی‌نژاد، تهران، نشر آموخته[.
]تحفه‌گر، افشین، (۱۳۹۸)، صدور مجوز نشر کتاب به‌صورت ناشر - مولف متوقف شده است، خبرگزاری ایرنا[.
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